New Seat Details - Durham, City of, and Easington

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Durham, City of, and Easington been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	30,003	57.3%
CON	14,448	27.6%
LIB	3,163	6.0%
UKIP	2,009	3.8%
MIN	1,628	3.1%
Green	845	1.6%
OTH	221	0.4%
LAB Majority	15,555	29.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Durham, City of, and Easington: Map

List of old seats forming part of Durham, City of, and Easington

Old seat: Durham, City of

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Durham, City of, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Durham, City of				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Durham	Belmont	10,115	Durham, City of, and Easington	2,130	3,760	738	112	144	0	0	79	6,963
Durham	Brandon	7,146	Durham North West	1,119	3,364	275	79	40	0	0	21	4,898
Durham	Coxhoe	9,280	Billingham and Sedgefield	1,452	4,133	308	102	44	0	0	36	6,075
Durham	Deerness	8,234	Durham North West	1,494	3,620	336	100	44	0	0	70	5,664
Durham	Durham South	1,619	Durham, City of, and Easington	672	828	253	25	49	0	0	32	1,859
Durham	Elvet and Gilesgate	4,081	Durham, City of, and Easington	1,496	2,112	600	185	125	0	0	40	4,558
Durham	Esh and Witton Gilbert	1,907	Durham North West	396	697	138	62	11	0	0	7	1,311
Durham	Framwellgate and Newton Hall	10,175	Durham North	2,398	3,199	929	298	159	0	0	86	7,069
Durham	Neville's Cross	6,502	Durham, City of, and Easington	1,856	2,201	763	64	143	0	0	20	5,047
Durham	Sherburn	6,531	Durham, City of, and Easington	1,274	2,484	427	71	34	0	0	48	4,338
Durham	Trimdon and Thornley	462	Durham, City of, and Easington	67	235	12	15	2	0	0	2	333
Durham	Willington and Hunwick	299	Bishop Auckland	54	137	8	4	2	0	0	4	209
	Total	66,351		14,408	26,770	4,787	1,117	797	0	0	445	48,324

The full details of these calculations are given on the Durham, City of seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Easington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Easington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Easington				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Durham	Blackhalls	5,261	Hartlepool	745	1,925	33	106	29	0	210	0	3,048
Durham	Dawdon	5,868	Houghton and Seaham	768	2,420	52	134	37	0	230	0	3,641
Durham	Deneside	5,280	Houghton and Seaham	612	2,277	28	112	29	0	169	0	3,227
Durham	Easington	5,559	Durham, City of, and Easington	788	2,132	36	117	80	0	227	0	3,380
Durham	Horden	5,809	Durham, City of, and Easington	720	2,393	39	130	34	0	238	0	3,554
Durham	Murton	5,820	Durham, City of, and Easington	666	2,338	26	314	29	0	133	0	3,506
Durham	Passfield	3,539	Durham, City of, and Easington	548	1,077	38	79	25	0	204	0	1,971
Durham	Peterlee East	5,484	Durham, City of, and Easington	679	2,078	46	118	36	0	220	0	3,177
Durham	Peterlee West	6,119	Durham, City of, and Easington	858	2,269	74	147	45	0	317	0	3,710
Durham	Seaham	5,270	Houghton and Seaham	906	1,694	44	311	26	0	119	0	3,100
Durham	Shotton and South Hetton	6,413	Durham, City of, and Easington	936	2,430	44	142	39	0	282	0	3,873
Durham	Trimdon and Thornley	295	Durham, City of, and Easington	33	121	1	15	1	0	7	0	178
	Total	60,717		8,259	23,154	461	1,725	410	0	2,356	0	36,365

The full details of these calculations are given on the Easington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sedgefield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sedgefield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sedgefield				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Darlington	Brinkburn and Faverdale	22	Darlington	7	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	14
Darlington	Heighington and Coniscliffe	3,276	Darlington	1,444	557	32	59	74	0	0	0	2,166
Darlington	Hurworth	2,867	Darlington	863	654	100	59	86	0	0	0	1,762
Darlington	Park East	122	Darlington	27	51	4	8	4	0	0	0	94
Darlington	Sadberge and Middleton St George	4,598	Darlington	1,815	801	76	174	83	0	0	0	2,949
Durham	Aycliffe East	6,240	Billingham and Sedgefield	1,394	2,429	86	148	58	0	0	0	4,115
Durham	Aycliffe North and Middridge	7,790	Billingham and Sedgefield	1,827	3,051	100	169	68	0	0	0	5,215
Durham	Aycliffe West	5,403	Billingham and Sedgefield	1,293	2,457	71	141	56	0	0	0	4,018
Durham	Bishop Middleham and Cornforth	2,937	Billingham and Sedgefield	624	1,143	21	60	22	0	0	0	1,870
Durham	Blackhalls	840	Hartlepool	179	336	7	19	6	0	0	0	547
Durham	Chilton	2,970	Billingham and Sedgefield	604	1,207	35	68	25	0	0	0	1,939
Durham	Ferryhill	7,289	Billingham and Sedgefield	1,749	2,825	83	183	71	0	0	0	4,911
Durham	Sedgefield	6,274	Billingham and Sedgefield	1,928	1,851	89	128	54	0	0	0	4,050
Durham	Trimdon and Thornley	8,653	Durham, City of, and Easington	1,725	3,545	66	475	59	0	0	0	5,870
Durham	Wingate	2,913	Hartlepool	663	1,288	27	72	21	0	0	0	2,071
	Total	62,194		16,142	22,200	798	1,763	688	0	0	0	41,591

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sedgefield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Durham, City of, and Easington

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Durham, City of, and Easington
Durham	Belmont	10,250	Durham, City of	2,130	3,760	738	112	144	0	0	79	6,963
Durham	Durham South	2,737	Durham, City of	672	828	253	25	49	0	0	32	1,859
Durham	Easington	5,801	Easington	788	2,132	36	117	80	0	227	0	3,380
Durham	Elvet and Gilesgate	6,708	Durham, City of	1,496	2,112	600	185	125	0	0	40	4,558
Durham	Horden	6,097	Easington	720	2,393	39	130	34	0	238	0	3,554
Durham	Murton	6,013	Easington	666	2,338	26	314	29	0	133	0	3,506
Durham	Neville's Cross	7,428	Durham, City of	1,856	2,201	763	64	143	0	0	20	5,047
Durham	Passfield	3,381	Easington	548	1,077	38	79	25	0	204	0	1,971
Durham	Peterlee East	5,450	Easington	679	2,078	46	118	36	0	220	0	3,177
Durham	Peterlee West	6,364	Easington	858	2,269	74	147	45	0	317	0	3,710
Durham	Sherburn	6,384	Durham, City of	1,274	2,484	427	71	34	0	0	48	4,338
Durham	Shotton and South Hetton	6,644	Easington	936	2,430	44	142	39	0	282	0	3,873
Durham	Trimdon and Thornley	490	Durham, City of	67	235	12	15	2	0	0	2	333
Durham	Trimdon and Thornley	306	Easington	33	121	1	15	1	0	7	0	178
Durham	Trimdon and Thornley	9,019	Sedgefield	1,725	3,545	66	475	59	0	0	0	5,870
	Total	83,072		14,448	30,003	3,163	2,009	845	0	1,628	221	52,317

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Durham, City of, and Easington. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Grahame Morris (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	83,072
Turnout:	63.0%

Durham, City of, and Easington: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Durham, City of, and Easington: Overview

Introduction